Analysis of global electric two-wheeler vehicle lithium batteries

Analysis of global electric two-wheeler and balance vehicle lithium batteries-
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    As an important link to alleviate global environmental and energy problems, the development process of electric two-wheelers has received attention from governments around the world.

    Driven by major new energy industries promoting countries such as China, Europe, South Asia, North America and Japan, the electric two-wheeler market has entered a period of rapid development.

    Electric two-wheelers are generally divided into three categories, namely e-bikes, electric mopeds and electric motorcycles.

    E-bikes are relatively light and portable, and their appearance is usually similar to that of a regular bike with less plastic cover and more exposed frame parts.

    Electric mopeds are more similar to motorcycles in appearance, and have higher motor power, longer range and greater loading capacity than e-bikes.

    Electric motorcycles are similar in appearance to electric mopeds, with most of the bodywork covered with plastic.

    Among the three categories of electric two-wheeled vehicles, electric motorcycles have the greatest power and load capacity, as well as a relatively strong braking system, making them better overall performers.

    Electric balance vehicle, also called body car, thinking car, regulating car, etc.. There are mainly two types of one-wheel and two-wheel in the market.

    Its operating principle is mainly based on a basic principle known as “dynamic stability”.

    The use of gyroscopes and acceleration sensors inside the body to detect changes in attitude, and the use of servo control systems to accurately drive the motor to adjust accordingly, in order to maintain the balance of the system.

    It is a new type of green product used by modern people as a means of transportation and recreation.

    From the distribution of two-wheeled vehicle types in the global regional market, excluding the South Asian and Chinese markets with e-bike and electric motorcycle as the main types.

    And the European market, the North American market and the Japanese and Korean markets with e-bike as the main electric two-wheeled vehicle, while the balance vehicle is mainly distributed in China and Europe and America.

    Global lithium two-wheelers and balance bikes product introduction

    Two-wheeled vehicle catagories

    In 2020-2022, affected by the epidemic, more and more people choose to travel this healthy and green way of travel, especially in Europe.

    Demand for electric two-wheeled vehicles, electric scooters and electric balance bikes and other short-distance transport has increased significantly.

    The global market range of electric two-wheeled vehicles (including balance bikes, the following two-wheeled vehicle content all include balance bikes) to maintain a steady growth trend.

    Data show that in 2022, global shipments of electric two-wheeled vehicles will reach 87 million units, an increase of 13.6% year-on-year.

    Global Electric two-wheeler and Balance Vehicle Shipments and Forecast 2018-2027 (10,000 units, %)

    Currently, the Chinese market is dominated by electric two-wheelers, and electric two-wheelers are powered by lead-acid batteries.

    The European market and the Japanese and Korean markets are dominated by e-bike models, and almost all e-bikes are powered by lithium batteries.

    The balance bikes are also powered by lithium batteries.

    Global electric two-wheelers and the degree of lithium ionization

    Global electric two-wheelers and lithium electrochemical degree

    Benefiting from the rapid development of the market and foreign governments’ support for energy and environmental protection, the global lithium two-wheelers market has maintained a steady growth trend.

    Global Penetration and Forecast of lithium-ion electric two-wheelers and Balanced Vehicles (%), 2018-2027

    GGII data show that in 2022, global shipments of lithium two wheelers and balance bikes are 27.35 million units, and lithium penetration rate is 31.4%.

    The main reason is that the Chinese market for lithium in two-wheeled vehicles is less than expected, driving global shipments of lithium in two-wheeled vehicles down slightly overall.

    The trend of lithium-ionization of electric two-wheelers is more certain, and the future lithium-ion two-wheelers market still has huge growth space.

    At present, global lithium two-wheeler shipments are mainly concentrated in the five major markets of China, Europe, Japan and Korea, South Asia and North America.

    Regional share of global lithium two-wheeler shipments in 2022 (%)

    China market

    At present, the Chinese market is dominated by electric two-wheelers. A

    ccording to professional team research, as of the end of 2022, China’s electric two-wheelers holdings have exceeded 320 million units, and now holdings of more than 95% of electric two-wheelers are dominated by lead-acid batteries, and lithium two-wheelers holdings account for less than 5%.

    In 2022, the annual shipments of lithium two-wheelers in China will decline significantly due to the significant increase in the cost of lithium batteries, with shipments reaching 18.35 million units (including 800 lithium two-wheelers and 10.35 million lithium balance bikes).

    GGII expects that by 2027, shipments of lithium two-wheelers in China will reach 43.5 million units, and the penetration rate of lithium two-wheelers will reach 49.7% by then.

    Shipments of lithium electric two-wheelers in the Chinese Market in 2018-2027 and forecast (10,000 units, %)

    European market

    European lithium two-wheelers are dominated by e-bike models.

    The e-bike is defined as an urban or tourist electric two-wheeler, also called a booster, with a speed of no more than 25 km/h and a power of no more than 250 W.

    Currently, the market volume of e-bikes occupies more than 95% of the share of lithium two-wheelers in the entire European market.

    GGII data show that European shipments of lithium two-wheeled vehicles in 2019 are conservatively estimated at 2.6 million units, an increase of 6.1% year-on-year, and the impact of carbon-neutral policy and the epidemic.

    The 2022 market continues the outbreak trend in 2021, with annual shipments reaching 5.5 million units in 2022. Shipments will reach 10.5 million units.

    Shipments of lithium-ion two-wheelers in Europe 2018-2027 and Forecast (10,000 units, %)

    From the point of view of e-bike shipments in various European countries, Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium are the main e-bike market countries.

    And from the point of view of population, sales volume and per capita share, France, Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium are still the main consumer market in the current European market, of which the German market occupies more than one-third, but the Netherlands, Belgium, Spain, as well as Eastern Europe (Poland, etc.), Northern Europe’s markets are rising.

    Japan and Korea market

    GGII data show that in 2022, Japan and South Korea will ship 950,000 lithium two-wheelers, an increase of 11.8%. GGII predicts that by 2027, Japan and South Korea will ship 1.55 million lithium two-wheelers.

    2018-2027 Shipments and Forecast of lithium-ion two-wheeled vehicles in Japan and South Korea (10,000 units, %)

    North American market

    In the North American market, because of the difference in consumer philosophy, American consumers generally believe that transportation is a car, while two-wheeled vehicles are tools for sports, fitness and recreation.

    Therefore, on the whole North American market, the application of lithium two-wheelers is not as good as the European market.

    According to GGII data, overall annual shipments rose to 450,000 units in 2022 due to the economic recovery.

    Influenced by the Biden administration and the new energy support policy, the North American lithium two-wheeled vehicle market is expected to usher in a wave of growth, and shipments of lithium two-wheeled vehicles will reach 490,000 in 2023, with an average annual growth rate of more than 20%.

    Shipments of lithium-ion two-wheelers in North America from 2018 to 2027 and Forecast (10,000 units, %)

    South Asia market

    In the South Asian market represented by India, motorcycles occupy most of the two-wheeled vehicle market, and there are relatively few electric two-wheeled vehicles and e-bikes.

    Due to the influence of global new energy, the two-wheeled vehicle market in South Asia is also gradually lithium-ionized, but the base is too small, and the overall degree of lithium-ionization is currently low.

    According to GGII data, 550,000 lithium two-wheelers will be shipped to South Asia in 2022, and GGII forecasts that 1.5 million two-wheelers will be shipped to South Asia in 2027.

    Shipments of lithium electric two-wheelers in South Asia from 2018 to 2027 and forecast (10,000 units, %)

    Lithium battery market size and forecast for electric two-wheelers

    According to GGII, global shipments of lithium batteries for two-wheeled vehicles and balance bikes will be 23.6 GWh in 2022, down 5.6% year-on-year, and the main reason for the slowdown is that the lithium-ionization of two-wheeled vehicles in China is not as expected.

    GGII predicts that as lithium battery prices fall in 2023, the global lithium battery for two-wheeled vehicles will continue to grow rapidly and is expected to exceed 55GWh by 2027.

    The biggest driver is the rapid growth of lithium two-wheeled vehicles in China and other markets such as Europe and South Asia.

    Moreover, it is precisely because of the huge market for electric two-wheelers, it has also created and continuously developed a new business model –  battery swapping business model.

    This battery swapping business model has been very popular in Southeast Asia, such as Vietnam, and can almost completely solve the charging problem of electric two-wheeled vehicles, improving efficiency.

    Global Shipments and Forecast of lithium batteries for Electric two-wheelers and balanced Vehicles, 2018-2027 (GWh,%)

    From the countries of production, two-wheeled vehicles with lithium batteries are mainly concentrated in China, Japan and South Korea production, excluding the Chinese market being self-sufficient in domestic batteries.

    Other regional markets are mainly Chinese companies supplying PACK batteries. Japan and South Korea mainly supply core products.

    GGII data show that in 2022, lithium battery shipments for electric two-wheelers and balance bikes in China will be 18.6 GWh, down 7% year-on-year. The main reasons for this are:

    The core raw material cost prices rose sharply, resulting in a decline in lithium penetration in two-wheeled vehicles. 2022 battery-grade lithium carbonate bulk order offer once again exceeded 500,000 yuan/ton mark.

    Lithium carbonate is the core material of all cathode materials for two-wheeled lithium batteries. Its price increase on the core procurement pressure is significant.

    Lithium manganate batteries, supplemented by lithium iron phosphate. According to the average price in 2022, the current cathode cost accounts for nearly 70%, which is the highest cost of core materials.

    Lithium carbonate is the core source of lithium manganate and lithium iron phosphate cathode costs, currently accounting for more than 80% of the cost. Lithium carbonate accounts for more than 50% of the core cost.

    The cost pressure of the battery connection is passed on to lithium two wheeled vehicle OEMs and end users. Two-wheeled lithium batteries commonly used battery model 4824, for example, 2021 4824 average price of about RMB 800-900 / group, 2022 H1 average price of RMB 1200-1400 / group, price increase of more than RMB 400 / group.

    Shipments and Forecast of Lithium Batteries for Electric Two-wheelers and Balanced Vehicles in China, 2018-2027 (GWh, %)

    GGII analysis, price is still the most critical reason affecting the penetration of lithium batteries in the field of two-wheeled vehicles.

    Reduced market demand for lithium-based shared markets has led to lower sales of lithium two-wheelers.

    In 2020, an unusually hot investment in shared electric bicycles. Driven by shared electric bicycles, demand for two-wheeled lithium batteries has skyrocketed, and its demand accounted for about 40% of all lithium battery shipments for two-wheeled vehicles in China.

    In 2021, most areas in China for electric bicycle launch area management began to tighten, the promotion of shared electric bicycles encountered policy resistance, the expansion of the entire industry slowed down sharply, and in 2022 was basically at a standstill, except for a few shared vehicle maintenance orders.

    With the exception of a few maintenance orders for shared vehicles, new orders will be greatly reduced or even disappear, reducing the demand for lithium-ion two-wheelers.

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